A System Dynamics Approach to Renewable Power Generation and Emission Control in Iran

Journal of Systems Thinking in Practice

دوره 5، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 18، پاییز 2026، صفحه 141-178   

نوع مقاله: Research Article

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jstinp.2025.94720.1168

نویسندگان

Hojat Tangesirasl¹؛ Khodakaram Salimifard²؛ Ahmad Ghorbanpur^{* 1}

¹Industrial Management Department, Faculty of Business and Economics, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran.

²Computational Intelligence & Intelligent Optimization Research Group (CIIORG), Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran.

چکیده

This study presents a system dynamics model to analyse how renewable electricity can reduce carbon emissions in Iran. It investigates the effects of population growth and the substitution of fossil fuels with renewable energy. Four population scenarios are considered: decreasing, moderate, stable, and high fertility. The results show that a high-fertility scenario (2.6) leads to a sharp increase in carbon emissions by 2051, underscoring the importance of demographic trends in energy planning. The study also tests three levels of renewable electricity substitution: high, medium, and low. Higher substitution levels lead to greater emission reductions. The simulation results provide both absolute and relative production values, indicating the amount of additional renewable electricity required to replace fossil-fuel-based generation. This model helps policymakers understand the long-term impact of energy and population policies on emissions. It also demonstrates how dynamic modelling can capture complex feedback mechanisms between population and energy systems. The approach offers a flexible tool for testing future scenarios and supporting strategic decision-making. Future work can improve the model by including economic analysis, carbon absorption capacity, and detailed investment scenarios.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Renewable Electricity؛ Carbon Emissions؛ System Dynamics Modelling؛ Population Scenarios؛ Energy Transition.

مراجع