Evaluation of the long-term trend and yield stability of pulse crops in Iran

پژوهش‌های حبوبات ایران

Article 14, Volume 11, Issue 2 - Serial Number 22, December 2020, Pages 196-214   

Document Type: مقالات پژوهشی

DOI: 10.22067/ijpr.v12i1.77599

Authors

Mohamad Javad Mostafavi^* ; Mina Hooshmand; Mahdi Nassiri Mahallati

Department of Agrotechnology, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

Abstract

Introduction
Climate change is an undeniable fact, and today this phenomenon has become a global issue. Its effects on crops yield and their stability facing increasing global climate change. Yield stability will be the most serious challenge for maintaining agricultural production and food security. After the cereals, pulses are the second most important source of food in Iran and the world, have great importance in agricultural systems and human nutrition. The yield of pulses has more variation than other crops, so the study of the yield stability of these crops can help the policy makers to develop the plans helping preservation and enhancement of pulses yield. The aim of this study was to research the yield stability of pulse crops in Iran for 33 years using different analytical methods.
 
Materials and Methods
All available statistics including the yield data on of chickpea, beans, and lentil data for the years 1983 to 2016, were collected from the published statistics by the Iranian ministry of agriculture. The residuals of regression between yield and time of the yields and its trends calculated from linear, bi-lines and tri‑lines models which were selected based on the higher coefficient of determination (R²) and normality of the residuals. Absolute values of the regression residuals were also used to calculate relative residuals of yields. The coefficient of variation (CV) for yields of every 4-year period was calculated by dividing the standard deviation by average. Mean yield of all pulses also were calculated as “Environment Index” to use in Finley-Wilkinson model. The positive slope of the residuals of linear regression, CV and Finlay‑Wilkinson model means the increase of yield instability and slope of zero and the negative slope of the linear regression indicates relative stability and increase of stability of the yield, respectively.
 
Results and Discussion
The increase in rainfed chickpea yield over the studied period was low and close to 0.75 kg ha^‑1 y^‑1. The trend of rainfed lentil yield was negative with a slope of -0.61 kg ha^-1 y^‑1 and the highest amount of yield increasement belonged to rainfed and irrigated bean by 25.17 and 21 kg ha^‑1 y^‑1. All the trends of residuals of pulses were positive that means instability of pulses yields over the studied period. Irrigated chickpea and rainfed lentil showed the highest CV trends and rainfed bean have had the highest range of values of CV. A CV as a simple and widely used parameter can show the standard deviation of the yield over the different environments and years, so higher values and positive trend of CV means higher fluctuations of yield level and its lower stability. Yield stability of the rainfed bean was lower than others but the trend of yield stability of irrigated chickpea and rainfed lentil is more than other pulses. Based on Finley-Wilkinson model, the trend of stability of all pulses was low and negative. Yield stability of the irrigated and rainfed bean was the lowest. Although due to the fact that rainfall is the major factor affecting the rainfed yield, it is expected that the irrigated yields to be more stable than rainfed yields, in contrary to our expectations, based on the results and the slope of the regression of the model, the yield of irrigated chickpea and lentil were more unstable than rainfed yield. The cultivated area of rainfed chickpea and lentil and irrigated beans showed a positive trend during the study period and inversely, the cultivated area of irrigated chickpea and lentil and rainfed bean were decreased. Absolute residuals of the yield as the indicator of stability (which has an inverse relationship) as a function of cultivated area, increased in about all of the studied crops except irrigated chickpea and rainfed bean. Most stable crops in the larger cultivated area were irrigated chickpea and rainfed bean.
 
Conclusion
According to the results, the overall trends in the yield increasement of pulse crops in Iran are low. The trend of chickpea and lentil has been much lower than rainfed and irrigated bean. On the other hand, fluctuations in yield over the past decades are high and therefore the stability of the country's pulses is also low. In Iran, it seems essential to development of new integrated and effective policies for the supporting scientific researched in the order to introducing new varieties, reduction of yield gap of pulses crops and improvement of their yield stability, and also education in order to improve the management of the pulse crops agroecosystems, as well as mitigation of the effects of climate change.

Keywords

Coefficient of variation of yield; Finlay Wilkinson model; Yield anomalies; Yield trend

References

1. Ahmadi, M., Lashkari, H., Keykhosravi, Gh., and Azadi, M. 2015. Analysis of he extreme indices of temperature in order to detection of climate change of great Khorasan. Journal of Geography 13(3): 53-75. (In Persian).
2. Amiri, M.J., and Eslamian, S.S. 2010. Investigation of climate change in Iran. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 3(4): 208-216.‏
3. Bénézit, M., Biarnès, V., and Jeuffroy, M.H. 2017. Impact of climate and diseases on pea yields: what perspectives with climate change? Oilseeds and fats, Crops and Lipids Sciences 24(1): 1-9.
4. Beheshti, A., Raiesi, F., and Golchin, A. 2011. The Effects of land use conversion from pasturelands to croplands on soil microbiological and biochemical indicators. Journal of Water and Soil 25(3): 548-562. (In Persian).
5. Calderini, D.F., and Slafer, G.A. 1999. Has yield stability changed with genetic improvement of wheat yield? Euphytica 107: 51-59.
6. Cattivelli, L., Rizza, F., Badeck, F.W., Mazzucotelli, E., Mastrangelo, A.M., Francia, E., Mare, C., Tondelli, A., and Stanca, A.M. 2008. Drought tolerance improvement in crop plants: an integrated view from breeding to genomic. Field Crops Research 15: 1-14
7. Cernay, C., Ben-Ari, T., Pelzer, E., Meynard, J.M., and Makowski, D. 2015. Estimating variability in grain legume yields across Europe and the Americas. Scientific Reports 5: 1-11.
8. De Vita, P., Mastrangelo, A.M., Matteu, L., Mazzucotelli, E., Virzì, N., Palumbo, M., Lo Storto, M., Rizza, F., and Cattivelli, L. 2010. Genetic improvement effects on yield stability in durum wheat genotypes grown in Italy. Field Crops Research 119: 68-77.
9. Duc, G., Agrama, H., Bao, S., Berger, J., Bourion, V., De Ron, A.M., Gowda, C.L.L., Mikic, A., Millot, D., Singh, K.B., Tullu, A., Vandenberg, A., Vaz Patto, M.C., Warkentin, T.D., and Zong, X. 2015. Breeding annual grain pulses for sustainable agriculture: new methods to approach complex traits and target new cultivar ideotypes. Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences 34(1): 381-411.
10. Dwivedi, S.L., Ceccarelli, S., Blair, M.W., Upadhyaya, H.D., Are, A.K., and Ortiz, R. 2016. Landrace germplasm for improving yield and abiotic stress adaptation. Trends in Plant Science 21(1): 31-42.
11. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). 2019a. Adaptation and Yield Stability. Available at website: http://www.fao.org/3/y4391e/y4391e05.htm (Verified 1 October 2019).
12. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). 2019b. Measures of Yield Stability and Reliability. Available at website: http://www.fao.org/3/y4391e/y4391e0a.htm (Verified 1 October 2019).
13. Finlay, K.W., and Wilkinson, G.N. 1963. The analysis of adaptation in a plant-breeding programme. Australian journal of agricultural research 14(6): 742-754.
14. Fischer, R.A., Santiveri, F., and Vidal, I.R., 2002. Crop rotation, tillage and crop residue management for wheat and maize in the sub-humid tropical highlands I. Wheat and legume performance. Field Crops Research 79: 107-122.
15. Heinemann, A.B., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Stone, L.F., and Didonet, A.D. 2017. Climate change determined drought stress profiles in rainfed common bean production systems in Brazil. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 246: 64-77.
16. Jeuffroy, M.H., and Ney, B. 1997. Crop physiology and productivity. Field Crops Research 53: 3-16.
17. Karim Mojni, H., Alizadeh, H.M., Majnoon Hoseyni, N., and Peyghambari, S.A. 2004. Effect of herbicides and handweeding in control of weed in winter seeding and spring sown lentil (Lens culinaris). Journal of Iranian Agronomical Sciences 6(1): 68-79. (In Persian with English Summary).
18. Koocheki, A., and Nassiri Mahallati, M. 2016. Climate change effects on agricultural production of Iran: II. Predicting productivity of field crops and adaptation strategies. Iranian Journal of Field Crops Research 14(1): 1-20. (In Persian).
19. Koocheki, A., Nassiri Mahallati, M., Najibnia, S., Lalehgani, B., and Porsa, H. 2015. Study of pulse crops biodiversity in agroecosystems of Iran. Iranian Journal of Pulses Research 6(2): 19-30. (In Persian with English Summary).
20. Lopez-Cruz, M., Crossa, J., Bonnett, D., Dreisigacker, S., Poland, J., Jannink, J.L., Singh, R.P., Autrique, E., and De los Campos, G. 2015. Increased prediction accuracy in wheat breeding trials using a marker×environment interaction genomic selection model. G3 Journal 5(4): 569-582.
21. Ministry of Agriculture Jihad. 2018. Statistics and Other Publications. Avalible at Website: http://www.maj.ir/Index.aspx?page_=form&lang=1&PageID=11583&tempname=amar&sub=65&methodName=ShowModuleContent (verified 25 November 2018).
22. Nassiri Mahallati, M., and Koocheki, A. 2014. Evaluation of the long-term trend of yield stability in the main cereals of the country. Journal of Agroecology 6(3): 607-621. (In Persian).
23. Parsa, M., and Bagheri, A.R. 2008. Pulses. Jahad Daneshgahi Mashhad Press, Iran. (In Persian).
24. Ray, D.K., Gerber, J.S., MacDonald, G.K., and West, C.P. 2015. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability. Nature Communications 6: 1-9.
25. Reckling, M., Dorling, T.F., Stein-Bachinher, K., Bloch, R., and Bachnger, J. 2015. Yield stability of grain legumes in an organically managed monitoring experiment. Aspects of Applied Biology 128: 57-62.
26. Shobeyri, S.S., Mostafaei, H., Shahab, M.R., and Kamel, M. 2015. Adaptation and seed yield stability of advanced lentil lines under cold rainfed conditions of Iran. Journal of Seedling and Sapling Breeding 31-1(3): 491-508. (In Persian).
27. Taheri, N., Fallahati Rastegar, M., Jafarpour, B., Bagheri, A.R., and Jahanbaghsh, V. 2011. Investigation resistance genotypes of lentil against isolates of Fusarium wilt isolated from north and Razavi Khorasan province. Journal of Plant Production 18(1): 105-118. (In Persian with English Summary).
28. Tao, F., Yokozawa, M., Liu, J., and Zhang, Z. 2008. Climate–crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends. Climate Research 38(1): 83-94.
29. Temesgena, T., Keneni, G., Sefera, T., and Jarso, M. 2018. Yield stability and relationships among stability parameters in faba bean (Vicia faba L.) genotypes. The Crop Jounal (In Press).
30. Verón, S.R., Paruelo, J.M., and Slafer, G.A. 2004. Interannual variability of wheat yield in the Argentine Pampas during the 20^th century. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 103: 177-190.
31. Von Richthofen, J.S., Pahl, H., Bouttet, D., Casta, P., Cartrysse, C., Charles, R., and Lafarga, A. 2006. What do European farmers think about grain legumes? Grain Legumes 45: 14-15.
32. Zander, P., Amjath-Babu, T.S., Preissel, S., Reckling, M., Bues, A., Schläfke, N., Kuhlman, T., Bachinger, J., Uthes, S., Stoddard, F., and Murphy-Bokern, D. 2016. Grain legume decline and potential recovery in European agriculture: a review. Agronomy for Sustainable Development 36(2): 26-46.
33. Zare Abyaneh, H., and Bayat Varkeshi, M. 2014. The long-term statistical study of three indices of annual yield, production and cultivated area of seventeen crops of Khorasan Razavi. Iranian Journal of Field Crops Research 12(3): 403-416. (In Persian with English Summary).