اثرات اقتصادی تغییر اقلیم و سناریوهای مدیریت منابع آب: کاربرد مدل هیدرو -اقتصادی مبتنی بر ریسک

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 7، دوره 34، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 50، دی 1399، صفحه 483-501   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead.2021.17813.0

نویسندگان

فاطمه ثانی¹؛ قادر دشتی^{* 1}؛ ابوالفضل مجنونی²؛ جواد حسین زاد¹

¹گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز

²دانشگاه تبریز

چکیده

حوضه آجی­چای یکی از بزرگترین مناطق کشاورزی و مصرف آب در حوضه دریاچه ارومیه است که در سال­های اخیر به دلیل اثرات تغییر اقلیم و عوامل انسانی، کارکرد خود در تأمین حق­آبه دریاچه ارومیه را از دست داده است. از این­رو هدف مطالعه حاضر، بررسی اثرات سناریوهای اقلیمی و سناریوهای مدیریت منابع آب بر مقدار آب در دسترس، نیاز آبی گیاهان، الگوی کشت، عملکرد و سود کشاورزان در شهرستان سراب به عنوان یکی از سرشاخه­های اصلی آجی چای می­باشد. بدین منظور از مدل هیدرو- اقتصادی مبتنی بر ریسک بهره­ گرفته شد که در بخش اقتصادی از مدل برنامه­ریزی ریاضی درجه دوم توأم با ریسک و در بخش هیدرولوژیکی از مدل WEAP-MABIA استفاده گردید. داده­های مورد نیاز از تکمیل 210 پرسشنامه از کشاورزان در سال 1397 جمع­آوری گردید. برای تولید داده­های روزانه اقلیمی از مدل HadCM3 و ریزمقیاس­سازی LARS-WG تحت سناریوی­ها انتشار A2، B1 و A1B استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که تغییر اقلیم باعث کاهش سود و اشتغال بخش کشاورزی شده و الگوی کشت به سمت محصولات با نیاز آبی پایین تغییر خواهد یافت. اعمال سناریوی افزایش راندمان آبیاری علاوه بر استفاده مفید و موثرتر از آب تخصیصی، سود کشاورزان را نیز افزایش خواهد داد که نسبت به سناریو کاهش سهم آب کشاورزی وضعیت مطلوبتری را ارائه می­دهد. در مجموع نتایج این مطالعه بیانگر آن است که در صورت ثابت ماندن روش­های مدیریتی در آینده­ی نزدیک، عملکرد محصولات کاهش چشمگیری خواهد یافت. از این­رو بهینه­سازی روش­های مدیریتی و استفاده از ارقام با عملکرد بالاتر به­ عنوان راهکارهای مقابله با اثرات تغییر اقلیم توصیه می­شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

برنامه‌ریزی درجه دوم توأم با ریسک؛ حوضه آجی چای؛ مدل هیدرو-اقتصادی؛ WEAP-MABIA

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